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Is the stock market like a casino?

In short: Over a few days or weeks, the market looks a lot like chance. Over the long term it is different: a share is a piece of a business that produces profits, whereas at the casino the house always wins on average.

What looks like a casino

Very short-term trading, options, leverage, trendy cryptos. The radar's test shows that guessing the one-month direction is almost as hard as a coin toss.

What is different

Companies create value, pay dividends and grow. Over 20 years a diversified market has historically been profitable, while a casino always has a negative expected value for the player.

The real question

It is not the market that is a casino, it is how you use it. Buying an ETF for 20 years and trading rumours with leverage have nothing in common.

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