MercadoLibre (MELI): forecast and analysis
Updated automatically · prices as of 2026-11-08
price over the last 6 monthsmost likely in 1 monthdark band: the price ends there 1 time in 2light band: 8 times in 10
53 chances in 100 of ending higher in a month, according to the AI. Low confidence: in cases like this the AI is often wrong. Look mainly at the expected volatility. Real reliability: on years it never saw, the AI got the direction right 56 times in 100 (always giving the same answer: 55).
Summary
For the coming month, the radar sees MercadoLibre slightly higher (low confidence: the AIs are often wrong in such cases). Central scenario: about $1,528.62. In 8 cases out of 10, the price should stay between $1,280.27 and $1,797.73. Probability of beating world stocks outside the US over the same period: 47%.
Expected movement next month: about ±14%, up or down.
Volatility over the last 20 sessionsAI forecast (next month)Its one-year normal
Open the interactive chart and simulator
Key indicators
| RSI (14) | 31 |
| ADX (trend strength) | 21 |
| Expected move over the next 5 sessions | ±6.3% |
| 3-month performance | -17.2% |
| Annualised volatility | +57% |
| Risk level | High |
Levels to watch
| Resistance (1-year high) | $2,295.00 |
| 50-day moving average | $1,808.04 |
| 200-day moving average | $1,801.82 |
| Support (20-day low) | $1,469.01 |
| Indicative stop-loss | $1,355.73 |
Reliability
Measured accuracy of the model on periods it never saw: 56% correct directions (naive baseline 55%). A forecast is a probability, never a promise.