Guides · Easy money, trading and scams: the truth
Are stock market forecasts reliable?
In short: Short-term direction forecasts are not very reliable, whether from analysts, websites or AI. A useful forecast must state a probability and have been checked on periods it had not seen.
Price targets
Analysts publish 12-month price targets. They are often revised after the fact and frequently wrong, especially at turning points.
How to read a forecast
"60% chance of rising" means it will be wrong 4 times out of 10 by definition. A forecast with no published track record is worth little.
What is more reliable
Risk forecasts (volatility, probability of a sharp drop) are clearly more reliable than direction forecasts. That is what the radar's test shows.
Today's numbers
| Asset | Price | Expected move over a month | Risk of a drop of more than 10% |
| CAC 40 (indice) | €8,139.00 | ±4% | 2% |
| S&P 500 (ETF) | $735.29 | ±4% | 3% |
| Bitcoin | $75,838.44 | ±8% | 9% |
Prices as of 2026-11-08, updated automatically. Volatility and drop risk are what the radar's AIs forecast best; they are not buy or sell recommendations.